I feel bad for today's 21-year-olds. They are too junior for the work that pays. Too unwanted for the work that teaches.
The big companies are laying off employees to free up budget for AI while hiring fewer freshers. Startups meanwhile are moving too fast to train anyone slowly.
What does this mean for freshers?
AI essentially makes everyone a generalist. But I am still of the firm belief that the path to becoming a generalist still runs through being a vertical specialist first. However, the opportunities afforded by companies to help you become that vertical specialist are shrinking.
Across the board, where 'AI-native' startups want to grow with leaner teams, there's a growing preference for hiring senior ICs. Why? Because there is no time to wait two years for a fresher to grow into the role. A senior with AI tooling outproduces ten juniors and does not need to be taught. Time is the scarce resource, and AI buys time only for people who already have judgment to spend it.
That is the trap. Freshers cannot get into mid-management because they have not built the judgment that mid-management hires for. And they cannot find entry-level apprenticeships in the same numbers as before (the path to becoming senior ICs), because employers are choosing AI over training. So they sit between two closed doors.
Judgment is built from grunt work, and the grunt work is now AI's job.
If the bottom is getting thinner, where are the young ones supposed to go?
The post-AI startup runs on judgment, and judgment comes from doing one thing for many years. And we are not letting that happen.